Statistics from the Bubble Burst to 2015

Can you believe we are 8-9 years past the real estate housing bubble bursting? These stats are an interesting snapshot of what has happened since.

1,404 homes sold through the Ulster County Multiple Listing Service in 2015.

744 properties sold below $200,000.
455 properties sold between $201,000 and $350,000.
125 properties sold between $351,000 and $500,000.
50 properties sold between $501,000 and $750,000.
19 properties sold between $751,000 and $1,000,000
10 properties sold between $1,000,000 and $1,500,000
2 properties sold above $1,500,000

Before analyzing those numbers, let’s look at the currently active listings in comparison. This will clarify some things:

Below $200,000 = 421 active listings (744 sold last year)
$201,000 to $350,000 = 368 active listings (455 sold last year)
$351,000 to $500,000 = 147 active listings (125 sold last year)
$501,000 to $750,000 = 78 active listings (50 sold last year)
$751,000 to $1,000,000 = 48 active listings (19 sold last year)
$1,000,000 to $1,500,000 = 33 active listings (10 sold last year)
$1,501,000 and above = 16 active listings (2 sold last year)

If you look at the range from $0 to $350,000 you’ll see that the ratio between solds and actives is in the “plus,” meaning that there are currently less homes on the market than there were sold ones last year. That’s ideal. Because there are always new homes coming on the market, there is an important relationship between solds and actives. It’s called Absorption Rate.

That’s a really important number. Think of a sponge that is dry. You can put it in water and it’ll absorb it easily. If the sponge if already soaking wet, however, nothing will get absorbed. Same happens with the market.

Take the $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 range with 10 solds last year and 33 currently active listings: Even if no other new houses would come on, it would take 3 years to sell all of those listings. The absorption rate for listings above $1,500,000 is even more drastic as it would take 8 years to sell all 16 listings (at a rate of 2 per year).

This does not take into consideration significant changes in the market from year to year but increases are usually very slow (the increase in prices between 2001 and 2007 was an abnormal occurrence and can’t be brought into this equation).

Bottom line here is this: The most crucial item in selling a home is the price. There are many factors that play into the calculation of the list price and my next newsletter will cover this in great detail.

For now, let’s talk briefly about value trends in the last 9 years:

Between 2007 and 2015, the median sale price went from:

$250,750 in 2007 (1384 units sold) to
$240,000 in 2008 (1040 units sold) to
$210,000 in 2009 (1037 units sold) to
$210,000 in 2010 (1006 units sold) to
$199,000 in 2011 (916 units sold) to
$191,500 in 2012 (1073 units sold) to
$205,000 in 2013 (1228 units sold) to
$197,912 in 2014 (1332 units sold) to
$199,900 in 2015 (1404 units sold).

What this tells us:

The values have not increased in the last five years.
The number of units sold are at its highest for the last 9 years.
The market activity has steadily increased since 2011.
The market was more active last year than it was in 2007 during the “hype” year.
The home values have stabilized and we are in a healthy market even though the prices have not increased in the last 5 years.

Based on the units sold, there should be an increase in value again in 2016 but I don’t think it will be significant.

Phew, we did it. That wasn’t too bad, right? Of course, there are internal differences between townships and areas but in general, I hope this gives you a good idea of what’s going on in Ulster County.

Until next time, cheers and happy new year!

Stefan

P.S.: Be weary of sites like Zillow when it comes to determining home values. Their “Zestimates” are off more often than not. Their numbers are not accurate in general and can therefore be misleading (in both directions).

Better call me.

 

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About Stefan Bolz, Licensed RE Assoc Broker

Contact me at: Stefan Bolz, Associate Broker Westwood Metes & Bounds Realty 134 Main Street New Paltz, New York 12561 Office: 845.255.9400 Mobile: 845.633.5223 stefan@westwoodrealty.com
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